I don’t quite know what to take from the Geelong match last week, much like I don’t know what to make of our early form this year. We won two quarters against Geelong – in fact we were dominant in those two quarters – yet the match still ended with us looking – and being – well beaten thanks largely to a second quarter fade out where Geelong blew the game open.
Most people would have expected us to be 2-1 at this point, but as things stand we are under threat of falling to 1-3 after this weekend. I had this match pegged as a 50/50 prospect, which was why I had hoped we would be in a better position at this point. Our matches against Brisbane are never a foregone conclusion and over recent years we have shared the chocolates evenly.
The side hasn’t quite found any synergy yet this year, at least not for any extended period. In our first three matches, we have suffered from having at least one forgettable quarter. It has cost us twice, whilst we were able to get it together and overcome Melbourne in round two — which is nothing to write home about.
Brisbane’s season so far has paralleled ours to some degree, with the Lions also falling victim to “missing quarters” as Michael Voss so dubbed them. I’ve watched all three of Brisbane’s games this year and I would have to say that they’re looking a little bit better than us at the moment, due in large part to their key players firing when required.
We’ll go into this match missing both Heath Shaw and Nick Maxwell, a significant part of our defensive make-up. Our defence has looked vulnerable so far this year and has been exposed accordingly, the absence of Shaw and Maxwell – regardless of their current form – is sure to hurt. We’ll also be missing Ben Johnson who broke his fibula against Geelong, meaning that our hand will be forced on at least three changes this week.
With our defence being somewhat rattled through injury, suspension and plain old form; the likes of Brown and Bradshaw look even more ominous. Prestigiacomo has always been good value on Brown in the past, but it remains to be seen whether he still has enough petrol tickets to repeat past heroics.
Bradshaw generally plays closer to goal and I fear could expose Nathan Brown when it comes to body-on-body contested work. Presti might be a better option whilst Rambo is given another stab at Brown after doing an admirable job earlier last year. Whoever stands Brisbane’s formidable key targets will need a chop out and regular assistance throughout the game. Our defenders have looked a little off early this year, but we need them to pull it together despite the odds on Friday night.
With the absence of Heath Shaw, I would expect Marty Clarke to drop back across half-back to help fill the void. Clarke and Cox – hopefully alongside an improved Harry O – will be vital in providing us with rebound. Importantly, we could make life a lot easier for our defenders if our midfield can break even with their Brisbane counterparts, whilst containing – at least to some extent – the likes of Simon Black and Luke Power.
It has almost become a foregone conclusion that Simon Black will carve us up, as he’s made such a habit of it. We need to start reversing this trend, not just against Brisbane but right across the board, as it seems every side has a player who regularly gets off the leash against us. At the same time we can’t afford to become fixated on one player, as Brisbane’s midfield runs fairly deep. Whilst Luke Power, Jed Adcock and Travis Johnstone are established talents, the likes of Rischitelli, rising star Daniel Rich and the returning Brennan are all deserving of respect.
I feel like I say it every week – which I probably do – but our medium and small forwards will have to make their minders accountable. In today’s game, a large portion of forward thrusts begin in defence and Brisbane has some excellent architects in this regard; Josh Drummond in particular. The likes of Drummond, MacDonald, Patfull and McGrath like to carry the ball and break things open heading forward — we don’t want these players getting comfortable for any period of time.
We did fairly well against Geelong in regards to clearances, whilst admittedly Geelong were more convincing – as we’ve come to expect – when it was their turn to take the ball away. We need to continue and sustain our work over the four quarters, whilst giving our forwards some quick, quality ball out of the middle. Travis Cloke is due for a big game and quite frankly we need him to stand up, as he’s been well subdued so far this year.
There has been some speculation that Rocca might return this week, something we’ll find out by this time tomorrow. Rocca would be a welcome addition, as his inclusion would alleviate some of the pressure currently on Cloke and Anthony. If Rocca does come in, those surrounding him will have to be switched on defensively because you can guarantee whoever mans him will be instructed to test him heading the other way.
Games at the Gabba tend to be a fast paced affair, so we’ll need to use the ball a lot better than we have in previous weeks to avoid getting cut up on the turnover. Thankfully, Brisbane have also had a tendency to burn the ball with some frequency, so if we can tighten up our game when in possession whilst punishing Brisbane for their errors, we’ll be halfway there. It goes without saying that we’ll all be praying for better kicking in front of the sticks this week, as I don’t think I could handle another night of repeated face palms.
With the threat of a 1-3 start to the year looming, the side has all the incentive it needs to bring their best this Friday. Counteracting this however is the carrot of a 3-1 start dangling in front of the Lions. Voss is likely to fill his players’ minds with jungle analogies and allusions of pre-existing mental scarring on our part, but in the end the winner will be the team who wants it the most right here, right now.
Both teams have a lot to gain from this match and would be well aware of what is at stake. Brisbane have the chance to get their season off to a flying start, whilst Collingwood are faced with the prospect of an increasingly steep uphill battle should they lose.
Here’s hoping the worst case scenario – which is gradually becoming a reality – makes us that much more desperate.
